HomeFinancingFinancing Chain and Credit Tiers
Who's Buying the Bonds, and at What Cost
Who's Buying the Bonds: Order-Book Coverage (Peak Basis)#
Order-book coverage is still above the 1.5x warning line, so the bonds get sold; large deal sizes depress the multiple, so watch the absolute order book.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Whether the deal gets done. Falling below 1.5x or a pulled deal is the real warning; the multiple is structurally depressed by deal size, and the 2026 US investment-grade average is about 4x. Hover for the absolute order book.
Source: Public bond filings and media reports; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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Cost of Issuance: 40-Year New-Issue Spread (Like-for-Like Maturity, bp vs UST)#
Forty-year issuance spreads deteriorated fastest at Oracle; Google and Meta widened about 35 basis points in six months; Amazon was flattest.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Whether the price is fair. The slope between one issuer's deals is how fast its cost is deteriorating; the vertical gap between issuers is the credit tiering.
Source: Public bond filings and media reports; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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Issuance Terms Monitor (Updated Aug 31 2026, Press and Institutional Reports)#
Size, tenor, spread and order-book coverage for each large bond deal, one row per deal.Draft, pending review
| Date | Issuer | Size | Tenor | New-issue spread (bp) | Change in terms | Order book | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/4-5 | GOOG | ~$27B | USD＋首次歐元債 | ：（起點） | 強 | Alphabet 首度大額進場（EDGAR 2Q25 $26.8B） | |
| 2025/9/24 | ORCL | $18B | 6檔 | 75/90/105/115/125/137 | ：（ORCL 基準） | 4.9x（$88B 峰值） | 降評前、AI 債熱潮起點 |
| 2025/10/30 | META | $30B | 6檔 5-40y | 50/70/78/88/98/110 | NIC ≈0 | 4.17x（$125B） | AA− 基準案，發行後收斂 |
| 2025/11 | GOOG | ~$26B（含歐元） | 含 50 年期 | 強 | 發行後收斂（EDGAR 4Q25 $26.6B） | ||
| 2025/11-12 | AMZN | $15B | 強 | AMZN 重返債市首案（EDGAR 4Q25 $15.7B） | |||
| 2026/2/2 | ORCL | $25B | 8檔 3-40y | 95~195 | 同天期較 9 月寬 40~58bp | 5.2x（$129B；IFR 峰值另說 $155B/6x+） | 成本惡化最硬證據；屬 $50B 計畫（含股權） |
| 2026/2/9 | GOOG | $32B（含英鎊/歐元） | 7檔＋100年英鎊 | 40y T+95（比初談縮25bp） | NIC 低 | >5x（>$100B，一線僅稱逾千億） | 100 年債 $14B 訂單；GOOG 40年期 95bp＝ORCL 3年期（信用分層） |
| 2026/3/10 | AMZN | $42-54B（USD 11檔至50y＋€10B） | 至 50 年 | 40y T+118／50y T+130（SEC FWP） | NIC 低 | ~3.4x（$126B/USD $37B；另說 3.2x） | 單案規模紀錄（EDGAR 1Q26 $53.4B） |
| 2026/4/30 | META | $25B | 6檔（至 40y） | 40y ~T+147（IPT ~180） | 同天期 v 25/10 +37bp | 3.8x（$96B） | 擴大支出展望後再融資（EDGAR 2Q26 待申報） |
| 2026/5 | GOOG | ~$25B | 重返歐元市場 | EDGAR 2Q26 $24.9B | |||
| 2026/6-7 | SPCX | $25B | 5檔（平均 11.7y） | 加權利率 5.855% | ：（首發） | IPO 後首發投資級債，部分償還 $20B 過橋貸款 | |
| 2026/7/7 | AMZN | $25B | 8檔 3-40y | NIC 長端 +18~21bp；40y 最終 T+125 | 2.5x（峰值 $62B；配售口徑 ~1.6x） | 二級當日 +6~15bp、美10Y +8bp；宣布 2026 不再發債 | |
| 2026/8/6 | GOOG | $25B | 10檔 2-40y（史上最大美元案） | 40y IPT 155→定價 T+130 | 同天期 v 2月案 +35bp；IPT 對存量債讓價最高 ~40bp | 4.6x（$115B） | 7 月胃納疲軟後強力回穩；管理層稱今後每年固定兩次美元發債；2026 第 3 次大案（2/9 USD、5月 EUR、8/6 USD）；EDGAR 3Q26 10-Q 申報後入圖（SEC 424B2 2026/8/7） |
| MSFT | 無新發行 | 唯一持續淨償還（Aaa/AAA 火力未動用） | |||||
| 完整性對帳：本表各家加總與上方「發債金額」圖（EDGAR 申報全量）一致：GOOG 2025 $64.6B／2026H1 $56.2B、AMZN 4Q25 $15.7B／1Q26 $53.4B、META 4Q25 $29.9B、ORCL FY26 前三季 $44.5B、MSFT 0。圖＝申報全量（含小額），表＝大型公募案明細；META 4 月案待 10-Q 申報後入圖。之後每次大案由 Claude 補記。GOOG 8/6 $25B 屬 3Q26，「發債金額」圖（EDGAR 全量）待 10-Q 申報後續抓（ 時點規則） |
Source: Federal Reserve (FRED) and public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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GPU-Backed Financing Terms: How the Market Prices Residual Value (Checked Deal by Deal as of Aug 11 2026)#
CoreWeave's GPU-backed spread tightened from 975 to 225 basis points, then moved back to 450 to 550 in 2026: lenders got more cautious on residual value this year.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
One question: do lenders trust GPU residual value? Three layers to check: the secured tranche spread, the amortization structure, and the same issuer's unsecured tranche for comparison.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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Implied Net New Financing Needed in 2026 and 2027 (Auto-Linked to the Debt Data; Assumptions Stated)#
On analyst CapEx estimates, the four hyperscalers plus Oracle need about $190B of net new outside money in 2027 in the base case.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Formula: CapEx estimate plus buybacks and dividends (held at the trailing four-quarter pace) minus estimated operating cash flow. This is a floor for net new external financing: it excludes refinancing of maturities, pre-funding and cash buffers, and assumes existing net cash is untouched, so actual issuance usually exceeds it. 2026 uses first-half actuals plus a second-half extrapolation; 2027 base continues the growth rate, conservative halves it.
Source: Company filings and analyst estimates (FinSight compilation and estimates) · Updated 2026-09-03
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