HomeSupply-Demand Scenarios and the Cost Line
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date#
The back-solved table for a custom scenario: whether your ARR path touches each cost line at each date.Draft, pending review
| Date | Compute at that date (M H100e) | Your ARR | New build, with depreciation ($4.5k) | ★ New build, with cost of capital ($5.6k) | Marginal, with cost of capital ($6.5k) | Installed base, with depreciation ($7.5k) | Installed base, with WACC ($9.5k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | 42M | $138B | $189B | $236B | $273B | $316B | $400B |
| 2027 年中 | 54M | $225B | $242B | $301B | $350B | $404B | $511B |
| 2027 年底 | 71M | $367B | $319B | $397B | $461B | $532B | $674B |
| 2028 年底 | 104M | $758B | $469B | $584B | $678B | $782B | $991B |
| 讀法同「供需情境推演」頁：綠底＝該時點你的 ARR 已觸及該門檻線 |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
↩ This chart lives on the pages1-scenario-epoch-07