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Supply-Demand Scenarios and the Cost Line
Model Basis: How the Threshold Line and Projections Are Derived (For Reference)#
How each of the six cost lines is built: the formula, the key assumption and the range.Draft, pending review
| Threshold | How it is built | Key assumption | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 現金營運損平 $1.4k | $0.9B/GW ÷ 1.24M 顆 | 電力＋維運，不含資本攤提 | $0.7k，保守自估 $1.4k：已越過 |
| 新建含折舊 $4.5k | 新世代 capex $13k：19k/顆 ÷ 5 年 ＋ opex | 5 年直線折舊；新世代晶片組合 | $4.0k：5.2k，中位 $4.5k |
| 新建含資金成本 $5.6k ★關鍵 | ($13k：19k) × CRF 26.4% ＋ opex | CRF＝5 年、WACC 10% 年金法；過線＝新建算力在 10% 資金成本下 NPV 轉正，追加 capex 從信仰變成套利：本模型最關鍵的分水嶺 | $4.8k：6.4k，中位 $5.6k |
| 邊際含資金成本 $6.5k | Epoch 1GW 年化 TCO 直接換算（$8.5B/年 ÷ 1.24M 顆，簡化法） | 與 CRF 法獨立推導收斂 | $6.2k：6.9k，取 $6.5k 為目標區間上緣 |
| 存量含折舊 $7.5k | 存量 capex 中位 $30.6k ÷ 5 年 ＋ opex | 存量含較貴的 H100 世代 | $7.5k（3 年折舊 → $11.6k） |
| 存量含 WACC $9.5k | $30.6k × CRF 26.4% ＋ opex | 完整經濟損平（存量全回收） | ~$9.5k |
Source: Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0); FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-01
ARR Checkpoints (Updates Live With the Slider)#
ARR checkpoints on the baseline path from end-2026 to end-2028; a supply-demand ratio above 1 means tighter than the threshold.Draft, pending review
| Date | Baseline ARR | Your scenario ARR | Implied YoY in your scenario | Supply-demand ratio (band midpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | $138B | $138B | 259%* | 1.14x |
| 2027 年中 | $236B | $236B | 223% | 1.29x |
| 2027 年底 | $367B | $367B | 166% | 1.30x |
| 2028 年底 | $703B | $703B | 91% | 1.22x |
| * 為年化換算。供需比欄 >1＝比效率調整門檻更緊。錨點：2026Q2 實際 ARR $72.9B |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-02
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date#
How much ARR it takes to touch each cost line at each date; mid-2027 needs $242B to reach the breakeven line.Draft, pending review
| Date | Compute at that date (M H100e) | Your scenario ARR | New build, with depreciation ($4.5k) | ★ New build, with cost of capital ($5.6k) | Marginal, with cost of capital ($6.5k) | Installed base, with depreciation ($7.5k) | Installed base, with WACC ($9.5k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | 42M | $138B | $189B | $236B | $273B | $316B | $400B |
| 2027 年中 | 54M | $236B | $242B | $301B | $350B | $404B | $511B |
| 2027 年底 | 71M | $367B | $319B | $397B | $461B | $532B | $674B |
| 2028 年底 | 104M | $703B | $469B | $584B | $678B | $782B | $991B |
| 讀法：例如 2027 年中若全市場算力 ~52M 顆，ARR 需 $234B 觸及新建含折舊損平線（$4.5k）、$291B 觸及 ★關鍵門檻（$5.6k 新建含資金成本＝增量投資 NPV 轉正的分水嶺） |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-03
Compute Supply vs Compute Demand (Same Units, Millions of H100e)#
When the demand line hugs or crosses the supply line, compute is tight; the blue dashed band shows two ways of estimating supply.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Demand compute = revenue ÷ efficiency-adjusted revenue per chip, anchored to 2Q26. The blue dashed band shows two supply estimates: the lower edge from known sites, the upper edge from extrapolating chip shipments.
Source: Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0); FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-04
Tightness Gauge: Annualized Revenue per H100e (History Plus Projection)#
Annualized revenue per H100e is about $2,430 today, still short of the $4,500 lower breakeven line; the key threshold is $5,600.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The orange zone is the price-increase test window. The green band, $4,500 to $6,500, is the target range: the lower edge is the breakeven line for a new site including depreciation, the upper edge a simplified annual total cost of ownership. The thick orange dashed line at $5,600 is the key threshold, above which incremental CapEx has positive NPV. The red dashed line at $9,500 is full breakeven on the installed base including cost of capital. The gold line at $1,400 is cash operating breakeven, already crossed.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-05
ARR Checkpoints (Updates Live With Your Inputs)#
The ARR checkpoint table for a custom scenario; the numbers follow your inputs.Draft, pending review
| Date | Baseline ARR | Your ARR | Your implied YoY | Supply-demand ratio (band midpoint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | $138B | $138B | 258%* | 1.14x |
| 2027 年中 | $236B | $225B | 209% | 1.23x |
| 2027 年底 | $367B | $367B | 166% | 1.30x |
| 2028 年底 | $703B | $758B | 107% | 1.32x |
| * 為年化換算。粗體時點＝你輸入的錨點，其餘為等比內插。供需比欄 >1＝比效率調整門檻更緊。錨點：2026Q2 實際 ARR $72.9B |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-06
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date#
The back-solved table for a custom scenario: whether your ARR path touches each cost line at each date.Draft, pending review
| Date | Compute at that date (M H100e) | Your ARR | New build, with depreciation ($4.5k) | ★ New build, with cost of capital ($5.6k) | Marginal, with cost of capital ($6.5k) | Installed base, with depreciation ($7.5k) | Installed base, with WACC ($9.5k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | 42M | $138B | $189B | $236B | $273B | $316B | $400B |
| 2027 年中 | 54M | $225B | $242B | $301B | $350B | $404B | $511B |
| 2027 年底 | 71M | $367B | $319B | $397B | $461B | $532B | $674B |
| 2028 年底 | 104M | $758B | $469B | $584B | $678B | $782B | $991B |
| 讀法同「供需情境推演」頁：綠底＝該時點你的 ARR 已觸及該門檻線 |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-07
Compute Supply vs Compute Demand (Same Units, Millions of H100e)#
Custom scenario version: converts your ARR path into compute demand and sets it against the supply line.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Same definitions as above: demand = your ARR ÷ efficiency-adjusted revenue per chip; the blue dashed band is the two supply estimates.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-08
Tightness Gauge: Annualized Revenue per H100e (History Plus Your Projection), Legend Hidden#
Custom scenario version: your ARR divided by both supply estimates; the diamonds mark when the path touches the breakeven line and the key threshold.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The solid and dotted yellow lines are the same ARR path divided by the two supply estimates; the thin brown line is their midpoint, and the diamonds mark when the midpoint reaches $4,500 and $5,600.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
Standalone page ↗s1-scenario-epoch-09