HomeDemandAI Revenue: ARR and Products
New ARR per New Chip
New ARR per New Chip (Monthly Approximation, $/Chip/Year)#
New ARR per new chip is still above the average, so the squeeze continues; the warning comes when marginal falls below average.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The orange line is a monthly approximation: OpenAI plus Anthropic monthly new ARR divided by market-wide monthly new compute. Dark dots are the exact quarterly values (five companies in the numerator). The grey dashed line is the average yardstick. 4Q24 was the trough of confidence.
Source: Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0); FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-04
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New ARR per Quarter ($B) = the Demand-Side Dollar Increment#
What data centers actually have to absorb is the dollar amount of new ARR each quarter, and it keeps getting bigger.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Percentages feed the stock narrative; dollar amounts are what capacity planning has to work with. The translucent latest quarter includes a run-rate estimate.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
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New H100e per Quarter (Millions) = the Supply-Side Increment#
New compute per quarter is expanding too; the latest quarter includes a run-rate estimate.Draft, pending review
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
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ARR per Chip: Average vs Marginal ($/Chip/Year)#
The marginal yardstick sits above the average: each new chip carries more business than the installed average.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Marginal = new ARR ÷ new compute. Average = ARR ÷ cumulative compute.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
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Marginal ÷ Average (x)#
One number to watch: marginal over average above 1 means the squeeze is deepening, below 1 is the early warning.Draft, pending review
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
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