HomeSupply-Demand Scenarios and the Cost Line
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date
Back-Solved: How Much ARR It Takes to Reach the Threshold Line at Each Date#
How much ARR it takes to touch each cost line at each date; mid-2027 needs $242B to reach the breakeven line.Draft, pending review
| Date | Compute at that date (M H100e) | Your scenario ARR | New build, with depreciation ($4.5k) | ★ New build, with cost of capital ($5.6k) | Marginal, with cost of capital ($6.5k) | Installed base, with depreciation ($7.5k) | Installed base, with WACC ($9.5k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 年底 | 42M | $138B | $189B | $236B | $273B | $316B | $400B |
| 2027 年中 | 54M | $236B | $242B | $301B | $350B | $404B | $511B |
| 2027 年底 | 71M | $367B | $319B | $397B | $461B | $532B | $674B |
| 2028 年底 | 104M | $703B | $469B | $584B | $678B | $782B | $991B |
| 讀法：例如 2027 年中若全市場算力 ~52M 顆，ARR 需 $234B 觸及新建含折舊損平線（$4.5k）、$291B 觸及 ★關鍵門檻（$5.6k 新建含資金成本＝增量投資 NPV 轉正的分水嶺） |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-08-31
↩ This chart lives on the pages1-scenario-epoch-03