HomeDemandPublic Cloud Earnings Check
AI Dividend: Growth Dollars, Share of Growth, AI Revenue
Cloud Revenue Added Year Over Year ($B/Quarter): the AI Dividend in Dollars#
Revenue the three public clouds add each quarter went from about $6B in 2Q23 to about $31B in 2Q26. That is the AI dividend in dollars.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Increment = this quarter's revenue minus the same quarter last year. The combined increment grew from about $6B in 2Q23 to about $31B in 2Q26, the most direct revenue evidence that AI investment is paying off. Azure is an estimated series, so the total differs slightly from outside reports.
Source: Company filings and earnings calls; FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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Share of the Growth: Each Company's Cut of the Three Public Clouds' YoY Increment#
Who captures the AI dividend shows up in share of new revenue, not installed share: Azure's cut fell from 47% to 28% while Google Cloud's rose from 22% to 36%.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Installed share moves slowly; share of new revenue reflects competitiveness right now. One reading is that in-house chips (TPU, Trainium) are the deciding factor, and Microsoft's lack of a top-tier chip is why its share of the increment is slipping.
Source: Company filings and earnings calls; FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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Estimated AI Revenue Run-Rate ($B)#
AI revenue run-rates at all three are climbing in steps. Solid dots are company-disclosed anchors, the rest is estimated between them.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Solid dots are anchors the companies disclosed. Everything else is interpolated or back-solved between anchors and drawn dashed.
Source: Company disclosures on earnings calls; FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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AI as a Share of Cloud Revenue (Run-Rate ÷ 4 ÷ Quarterly Revenue, Estimated)#
AI is now roughly 10% to 20% of quarterly cloud revenue, and it explains most of the rebound in cloud growth.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
AI run-rate divided by four, then by that quarter's cloud revenue. It puts a number on how much AI contributes to the rebound in cloud growth. Microsoft's AI definition is broader, so its ratio runs high.
Source: Company disclosures on earnings calls; FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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