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Backlog and Margins
Backlog / RPO Not Yet Recognized ($B)#
Backlogs jumped at all three in 2Q26. AWS went from $364B to $496B, mostly on long-term deals signed by model developers.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Definitions differ: AWS reports backlog, Microsoft reports company-wide remaining performance obligations (RPO), Google reports revenue backlog. Backlog quality in 2Q26: Microsoft $684B, of which cloud is about $625B with roughly 45% OpenAI-related; AWS $496B including $138B over eight years from OpenAI plus $33B-plus cumulative from Anthropic, so model developers are about a third; Google $519B including Anthropic.
Source: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q); FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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CapEx ÷ Backlog (%/Quarter): Is Spending Chasing Orders?#
CapEx as a share of backlog keeps falling: orders are growing faster than spending, so CapEx estimates still face upward pressure.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Historically this ratio has been fairly stable, which you can read as backlog governing CapEx. A falling ratio means orders are growing faster than spending, so CapEx has room to be revised up. Definitions: Microsoft uses company-wide RPO, Amazon uses AWS backlog, Google uses Google backlog. Levels are not comparable across companies; watch each trend on its own.
Source: Company filings and analyst estimates (FinSight compilation and estimates) · Updated 2026-09-03
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Cloud Operating Margin#
Cloud operating margins sit between 35% and 40% at all three even as chip spending surges. Google Cloud went from losses to 36%.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Microsoft has two lines. The solid line is Intelligent Cloud operating margin; the segment is discontinued from FY27 Q1, so it stops at 2Q26. The dashed line is Microsoft Cloud gross margin, which Microsoft keeps reporting quarterly, but it is a gross margin rather than an operating margin, so read the trend only and do not rank it against AWS or Google Cloud.
Source: Company filings and earnings calls; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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