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CapEx: Actual vs Estimates, Plus Buyers Outside the five hyperscalers
the five hyperscalers Quarterly CapEx: Actual vs Analyst Estimates (Dashed = Estimate, Cash Basis, $B)#
five hyperscalers quarterly CapEx keeps coming in above analyst estimates, and the estimate line is still chasing.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The four hyperscalers plus Oracle. Cash-basis CapEx excluding finance leases, so Microsoft and Meta differ from their own definitions. Oracle is converted from fiscal to calendar years and is less precise. Dashed lines are analyst estimates (FinSight compilation).
Source: Company filings and analyst estimates (FinSight compilation and estimates) · Updated 2026-09-03
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Listed Neoclouds Plus SPCX CapEx (Analyst Estimates, $B/Year)#
SpaceX alone is estimated at $181B of CapEx in 2027, more than the five listed neoclouds combined.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The verifiable part of demand outside the five hyperscalers. SpaceX's 2Q26 became an actual $18.4B, and analysts raised the second half to $19B to $20B a quarter.
Source: Company filings and analyst estimates (FinSight compilation and estimates) · Updated 2026-09-03
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Supply Chain Bridge: NVDA Revenue Checked Against five hyperscalers CapEx#
NVDA revenue has run at 0.45 to 0.54 of five hyperscalers CapEx for years; the rise to 0.54 in 1Q26 signals buyers outside the five hyperscalers stepping up.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The ratio has been stable at 0.45 to 0.54 because NVDA's customers go beyond the five hyperscalers and five hyperscalers CapEx goes beyond chips, and the two offset. A sharp fall would mean in-house chips substituting faster; a sharp rise means buyers outside the five hyperscalers stepping up. NVDA is converted from fiscal to calendar quarters, with roughly a month of offset.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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SPCX (SpaceX / xAI): the Biggest CapEx Buyer Outside the five hyperscalers#
SpaceX spent $18.4B of CapEx in 2Q26, 86% of it on AI compute, and its AI segment's EBITDA has turned positive.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
2Q26: total CapEx $18.4B, of which AI compute $15.8B; AI segment revenue $2.6B, up 247%, including $1.6B from Colossus cloud contracts; AI segment EBITDA turned positive at $1.1B. Compute at 1.4GW, over 2GW by year-end, approaching 10GW in 2027.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
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Macro Cross-Check: four hyperscalers All-In Investment vs All US Information Processing Investment (BEA, $B Annualized)#
four hyperscalers all-in investment at $726B annualized lines up with $798B of US information processing equipment investment; it shows in the macro accounts.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Red: four hyperscalers all-in investment times four, annualized. Orange: US information processing equipment investment (nominal, seasonally adjusted annual rate, including imports). Blue: US software investment.
Source: Federal Reserve (FRED) and public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-03
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