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The Hurdle Rate for Cloud Growth
Hurdle Rate by Company: Who Has Room to Beat It (Mechanical Projection, Same Basis as Above)#
Each company's hurdle rate is its depreciation growth; Google Cloud still clears it even on the strictest basis, the strongest signal of the group.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
The numerator is company-wide D&A, so the hurdle is systematically high; use it for the ranking and trend of each company's cushion, not the absolute level. Meta measured on company-wide revenue is actually the most faithful, since its AI monetization sits in the company-wide P&L anyway.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
Standalone page ↗s2-passline-csp-02
Depreciation Useful-Life Policy Tracker (the Lever That Moves the Hurdle Rate)#
Who changed server depreciation lives and by how much; this is the hand that moves the hurdle rate.Draft, pending review
| Company | Server useful-life history | Latest change | Earnings impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 3→4 年（2020/7）→ 6 年（2022/7） | 2022 延長 | FY23 約 +$3.7B 營益 |
| GOOG | 3→4 年（2021/1）→ 6 年（2023/1） | 2023 延長 | 2023 約 +$3.9B 淨利 |
| AMZN | 3→4（2020）→5（2022）→6（2024）→ ▼5 年（2025/1） | 2025 縮短（唯一逆向） | 2025 約 −$1.3B（含提前退役），理由＝AI 迭代加速 |
| META | →5 年（2023/1）→ 5.5 年（2025/1） | 2025 延長 | 2025 約 −$2.9B 折舊（美化獲利） |
| 判讀：延長年限＝當期獲利美化＋把折舊尾巴推向未來；AMZN 是唯一往保守方向走的（其及格線最誠實）。監測點：誰跟進縮短 AI 伺服器年限＝承認 GPU 經濟壽命更短，全行業及格線將被動上移；反之 META 若再延長＝紅旗。每季 10-Q/10-K 檢查年限段落 |
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-03
Standalone page ↗s2-passline-csp-03