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Macro Cross-Check, Layer by Layer
Concentration: Computers and Electronics vs the Rest of Durables (New Orders YoY, 3-Month Average)#
Computer and electronics orders are up 15% year over year against 6% for other durables: this time AI is surging on its own, not the rest collapsing.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Orange is NAICS 334, computers and electronics, where AI lands; blue is all other durables. Three-month smoothed. Past wide gaps mostly came from the blue line collapsing in recessions (2009, 2020); this time the orange line is surging on its own.
Source: US BEA and FRED public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-04
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Nominal Orders vs 2000: NAICS 334 New Orders ($B/Month, Seasonally Adjusted)#
Nominal new orders hit a cycle high but remain below the June 2000 peak, a mark of 26 years of offshoring and hardware deflation.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
This is the US-factory view, not the whole of AI demand.
Source: FinSight compilation and estimates · Updated 2026-09-04
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Signs Capacity Is Maxed Out: NAICS 334 Unfilled Orders and Semiconductor Industrial Production#
Unfilled orders at a record $157.4B and semiconductor production 69% above 2019: orders are coming in faster than they can be filled.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Left axis: unfilled orders, $157.4B in June 2026, 28% above the 2019 average. Right axis: the semiconductor and electronic components production index, 69% above 2019.
Source: US BEA and FRED public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-04
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Follow the Dollars: BEA Information Processing Equipment vs Software Investment (Nominal SAAR, $B)#
Equipment investment at $798B annualized, up 31.6%, is AI CapEx showing up directly in the GDP accounts.Draft, pending review
How to read this chart
Equipment investment includes imports, so it is more sensitive than factory orders. Software investment is $815B, up 9.2%. The slope of the equipment curve since 2023 is this CapEx cycle itself.
Source: US BEA and FRED public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-04
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Quick-Read Table (June 2026 and Q2 2026 Readings)#
The latest reading, direction and read of the four macro indicators in one table.Draft, pending review
| Indicator | Latest reading | Direction | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 334 電腦與電子產品新訂單（M3） | $31.1B／月（2026/6） | +16.8% YoY | AI 相關接單強，但名目仍低於 2000/6 峰值 $41.2B（口徑＝美國工廠） |
| 排除 334 的耐久財新訂單 | $304B／月 | +6.7% YoY | 傳統經濟溫和＝AI 拉動高度集中 |
| 334 未交貨訂單 | $157.4B（歷史新高） | +5.0% YoY | backlog 續堆＝產能滿載（對照電力瓶頸板 M3 電氣設備同款讀法） |
| 核心資本財新訂單（非國防除飛機） | $85.4B／月 | +12.9% YoY | 全經濟 capex 上行；334 佔其 36.4%（2019 年 34.4%、2000/6 曾達 60%） |
| 半導體與電子零組件 IP 指數 | 181.9（2026/6） | +11.5% YoY | 本土半導體產出創高（v 2019 +69%） |
| BEA 資訊處理設備投資 | $798B SAAR（2026Q2） | +31.6% YoY | AI capex 的總經本尊：含進口設備，M3 看不到的部分在這裡 |
Source: Federal Reserve (FRED) and public statistics; FinSight compilation · Updated 2026-09-04
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